NEHA October 2022 Journal of Environmental Health

12 Volume 85 • Number 3 A D VANC EME N T O F T H E SCIENCE finding proves that the “0” observed number of all children with BLLs of 5–9 µg/dL in the targeted county (Table 1) is acceptable according to our model. The same findings holds true for the Central region, where the probabilities are highest (0.256, 0.270, 0.189) for a relatively smaller number (1, 2, and 3, respectively) of all children <6 years with BLLs of 5–9 µg/dL in the targeted county. The probabilities are, however, highest for a slightly larger number (9, 10, and 11) of all children <6 years with BLLs of 5–9 µg/dL in the targeted county in the East region. For the South and West regions, the highest probabilities are not reached within a number of 15 for all children <6 years with BLLs of 5–9 µg/dL in the targeted county, indicating the number of children should be higher (Table 4). Clearly, an observed number of 14 for all children <6 years with BLLs of 5–9 µg/dL in the targeted county in the West region (Table 7) is not acceptable because its 95% credible interval based on our model is [30.7, 65.3]. The same trend is observed for estimated probabilities for White and non-White children as shown in Tables 5 and 6. Table 7 shows the observed number of children <6 years with BLLs of 5–9 µg/dL in the targeted county, along with their estimated number and their 95% credible interval based on simulation. It is important to note from Table 7 that in only two regions—North and Central—the estimated numbers of children <6 years with BLLs of 5–9 µg/dL in the targeted county concurred with the observed values, which is true for all, White, and nonWhite children. Figure 1 shows the estimated probability distribution for all children <6 years with BLLs of 5–9 µg/dL in the targeted county in the West and Central regions. The distribution in the West region, where the observed value of those children was not acceptable according to the model, is markedly di˜erent from the distribution in the Central region, where the model supported the observed value. The estimated probability is shown to be highest around 40 in the West region, indicating that the number of all children ages <6 years with BLLs of 5–9 µg/dL in the targeted county should be much higher than the observed value of 14, which is not acceptable. In the Central region, however, the estimated probability is shown to be Predictive Density for All Children <6 Years With Blood Lead Levels of 5–9 µg/dL in the Targeted County by Region in Georgia, 2015 # of Children Probability by Region North East South West Central 0 0.036 0 0 0 0.121 1 0.116 0 0 0 0.256 2 0.190 0.001 0 0 0.270 3 0.212 0.005 0 0 0.189 4 0.181 0.012 0 0 0.100 5 0.125 0.025 0 0 0.042 6 0.074 0.044 0 0 0.015 7 0.038 0.066 0 0 0.005 8 0.017 0.088 0 0 0.001 9 0.007 0.106 0 0 0 10 0.003 0.115 0 0 0 11 0.001 0.114 0 0 0 12 0 0.105 0 0 0 13 0 0.090 0 0 0 14 0 0.072 0.001 0 0 15 0 0.054 0.002 0 0 TABLE 4 Predictive Density for White Children <6 Years With Blood Lead Levels of 5–9 µg/dL in the Targeted County by Region in Georgia, 2015 # of Children Probability by Region North East South West Central 0 0.175 0.002 0 0 0.436 1 0.295 0.011 0 0.001 0.361 2 0.259 0.031 0 0.004 0.150 3 0.156 0.064 0.002 0.011 0.042 4 0.073 0.010 0.005 0.025 0.009 5 0.028 0.128 0.010 0.045 0.002 6 0.009 0.140 0.019 0.069 0 7 0.003 0.135 0.032 0.092 0 8 0.001 0.117 0.048 0.109 0 9 0 0.093 0.064 0.118 0 10 0 0.067 0.079 0.115 0 11 0 0.045 0.090 0.105 0 12 0 0.029 0.096 0.088 0 13 0 0.017 0.096 0.070 0 14 0 0.010 0.091 0.052 0 15 0 0.005 0.082 0.036 0 TABLE 5

RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NTU5MTM=